Do Sanctions on Iran Work? : AZ IMC

Iran’s nuclear program has been a matter of international concern ever since the discovery in 2003 that it had concealed its nuclear activities for 18 years in breach of its obligations under the Non Proliferation Treaty (NPT). In March 2007, the United Nations Security Council acted unanimously to tighten sanctions against Iran, imposing a ban on arms sales and expanding the freeze on assets, in response to the country’s uranium-enrichment activities, which Tehran says are for peaceful purposes, but other countries, including USA, France and Great Britain, contend are driven by military ambitions.

On the last Friday of August, the U.N. International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) released its latest report on Iran’s nuclear-energy program, announcing that it “does not consider that Iran has adequately addressed the substance of the issues.” U.S. State Department spokesman Ian Kelly said in response to the report, “it seems clear that Iran continues to not cooperate fully and continues it enrichment activities.”

Since 1987, U.S. government agencies have implemented numerous sanctions against Iran: U.S. Treasury oversees a ban on U.S. trade and investment with Iran. This ban may be circumvented by shipping U.S. goods to Iran through other countries; The U.S. State Department administers laws that sanction foreign parties engaging in proliferation or terrorism-related activities with Iran. The State Department and Treasury can use financial sanctions to freeze the assets of targeted parties and reduce their access to the U.S. financial system. In addition, the U.S. imposes travel and sanctions to Iran. But do these sanctions work?

U.S. politicians have talked up for months that U.S. can block sales of refined gasoline to Iran as a way of ratcheting up pressure on the government of Mahmoud Ahmadinajad. During last year’s U.S. presidential campaign, the idea of blocking refined gas to Iran was raised by the candidate Obama as “putting the squeeze” on Ahmadinajad. In April of this year, the U.S. Senate introduced a bipartisan Iran Refined Petroleum Sanctions Act, which would expand the sanctions imposed by President Bill Clinton in 1996. The Act gives the White House the authority to sanction companies that export gas to Iran. But how effective is this action?

Iran sits on a vast source of energy reserves –about 136 to 140 billion barrels of oil and some 14 trillion cubic meter of natural gas. But because its refineries are too few and too old to meet the demand at home, the country refines just two-thirds (440,000 barrels/day) of the gas it needs to keep the economy working for 66 million people. The remaining one-third, or about 120,000 barrels/day has to be imported from a fairly small number of Swiss, Indian, Malaysian and Chinese firms. Major Western oil companies operating in Iran, including Total, Royal Dutch and ENI, have held off from signing new deals with the Iranian government for several months.

Iran‘s government of Ahmadinajad, keen to keep voters happy, have subsidized gas. Iranians are entitled to 26 gallons of fuel a month at a price of 38 cents per gallon. If U.S. blocked imports of refined gas, the Iranian government could simply ease its subsidies and blame the U.S. for the suffering of its people. Subsequently, the demand for refined oil will dip.

On the other hand, China’s booming population and its increased demand for oil has been working on massive upgrades of Iran’s refineries. If Iran can upgrade its refineries, they will be self sufficient for few years to come. China estimates that crude oil imports will rise to meet 60 percent of its demand by 2020. That led Beijing in the midst of the nuclear debacle with Iran, to strike a deal with about $2.5 billion. Last month, the China National Petroleum Corporation sealed an agreement with the National Iranian Oil Company, a state-run enterprise, to develop an oil field in Southwestern Iran.

Recently, Iran’s ties with China have accelerated rapidly. In December 2007, the Chinese oil giant Sinopec Group signed a $70 billion deal to begin drilling in Iran’s Yadavaran field. Its estimated reserves can reach 17 billion barrels. In January of this year, China’s largest energy producer, CNPC, agreed to develop an oil field in the North Azadegan, a deal worth $2 billion. In August, Iranian oil officials flew to China to negotiate a $5 billion deal with CNPC for the development of South Pars gas field near the Arabian Gulf. Combine that with the fact that Iran already provides about 14 percent of China’s oil needs. Having invested tens of billions of Dollars in Iran’s energy sector, China, a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, may veto any new tough sanctions against Iran.
On Thursday China said is was seeking to increase cooperation and high-level exchanges with Iran, suggesting a remote possibility of agreeing to additional punitive measures of Iran’s nuclear program.

Russia, for its part is preparing to sign a deal for the sale of anti-aircraft technology to Iran, and has less appetite to agree on tough sanctions, despite the initial jubilant reaction of President Dmitry Medvedev over Mr. Obama’s scrapping of the Eastern European missile shield program. In his meeting with President Obama at the United Nations last month, President Medvedev said that “sanctions rarely lead to positive results, but sometimes, sanctions are inevitable.” He reiterated his views to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in Moscow on Tuesday, American officials said. Russia’s Prime Minister, Vladimir V. Putin, said that sanctions were “premature” and two days after its foreign ministry, Sergey V. Lavrov, said that threatening Iran while talks were under way would be “counterproductive.”

So far, Iran has managed since June 2007 to reduce its gasoline imports from 40 percent of total domestic consumption to 25-30 percent without political fallout. Moreover, with Russia and China willing to supply Iran with gasoline, a situation over which the United States has limited leverage, it would seem difficult for the U.S. to enforce any embargo short of military-backed blockade, or a military strike on Iranian nuclear facility by the U.S. or by Israel.

Military blockade or strike may encourage Iran to sabotage the oil fields in southern Iraq, risking 1.8 million barrels/day of oil export for several weeks and possibly months. In addition, Iran can sabotage the oil fields in the Arabian Gulf or even close the Straight of Hurmuz, through which about 20 percent of the world’s oil export passes. In either situation, the price of energy will spike and that will reflect on the U.S. fragile economic recovery, and may cause the U.S. Department of Energy to release the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), which stores about 700 million barrels of crude oil, capable of supplying 4.4 million barrels a day for up to 90 days.

No matter how tough the sanctions are, there is always room for American products to find its way into Iran. Most U.S. exports are found in the markets of Tehran, from GE refrigerators to Apple laptops and other items. They are smuggled via the Arabian Gulf States. In addition, the sanctions have restricted U.S. companies from doing business in Iran and opened the door for Russia, Chinese and other European firms to do business in Iran.

Gabriel Sawma is Professor of Middle East Constitutional Law; Author of “The Qur’an: Misinterpreted, Mistranslated, and Misread. The Aramaic Language of the Qur’an.” http://www.syriacaramaicquran.com; Expert consultant on Islamic divorce in US courts; Editor of International Law blog: http://www.gabrielsawma.blogspot.com; Email: gabrielsawma@yahoo.com

they are the only renegade nuclear state in the region.What this zionist is not telling you is that the paranoia and propaganda of the Israeli state is tiresome and mindless.
Why don't they sign the NPT?
and quit wanking about Iran wanting nuclear power, as they have every right, to have.

Why renegade? Its been assumed they have had nuclear weapons for over 40 years, yet Israel has never used them, in spite of dozens of wars and agression directed against her. Iran doesn't have them yet, but is already threatening the worlds only Jewish state with anhilation.

Israel has remarkable self restraint

because they illegally receive aid from the US against the tenets of the NPT, you know, the one the author is wanking about.
Self restraint?
where?
Oh you mean they haven't used the Samson Option to end all life with a full scale nuclear war?
Look up
Samson Option.

That was posted by a documented mental defective, a Jew hater, a rambling schizophrenic copycat.

Oh, but it supports the collective with loads of money. It portrays itself as a rich Jew, though a self loathing one.

aHAHAHAHAHAHAhahahaha

http://la.indymedia.org/news/2009/10/231547_comment.php#231612

"on another note
by donate, then, ya baby Saturday, Oct. 24, 2009 at 9:55 AM

like I said, if everyone was as generous as myself, this site would be wealthy, ya hypocritical, psychopathic freeloader."

The mental defective goes by Sheepdog, but we lovingly call it "shit for brains", or shitferbrains for short.

It is documented to sometimes post to itself, (being the lonely wheelchair bound terrorist fellator that it is).

These two posts belong to it, for example. trust me, there are others on that thread.

http://la.indymedia.org/news/2009/10/231352_comment.php#231623

you read with
by foggy lenses Saturday, Oct. 24, 2009 at 3:45 PM

if you even remotely read anything i said and used some basic logic
(how old are you?), you'd understand that I don't believe being organized is fascism. Think of the logic and position you are taking (or maybe it's not you but the person i'm criticiziing)

"insuring discipline among the masses"

mistake number #1: treating people like masses.
that's the same crude logistics that dictators, kings, and nobles
have used since feudalism and capitalism.

and what do you mean by discipline?
who gets to decide that?

look into the recent RNC/DNC and G20 protests
"formats" or "organizing structures" were devised egalitarianly in
open meetings so that people could plug into the protests and
be able to do their thing while meeting the points of unity.
If that's the type of "discipline" you're referring to then i'm all for it
but if you're referring to a group of people, behind closed doors,
who claim to have the wisdom and knowledge to decide for everyone
else how we should protest or what we should do, then fuck you.

One minor note, the formats that were devised were very loose and open and but still structured so that people could still have grounds
for working together and being loosely united. Similar to a federation.
They were also open to a DIVERSITY OF TACTICS.

I don't care whether you agree or disagree with protesting the rnc/dnc/g20 or whether you thought it was a sucess or not.
I'm solely using this as an example to show what i agree with if you
have to use the word "discipline" and what i don't agree with.

fuck, i have to make things so simple so that maybe, just maybe you
won't read what i type with foggy lenses.

don't be such a hot head
by kinda twisted Saturday, Oct. 24, 2009 at 4:18 PM

where the HELL did you read that into what I said.
"If that's the type of "discipline" you're referring to then i'm all for it
*but if you're referring to a group of people, behind closed doors,
who claim to have the wisdom and knowledge to decide for everyone*
else how we should protest or what we should do, then fuck you. "

obviously, you are not reading what *I've* been saying and are confabulating boogy men when there is only darkness.
Go ahead, be a mob of white noise, all shouting, no one listening.
Unified tactics don't mean anything more than the message being sent.
Want to scare the overclass? Get your act together and stop trying to tell people to "fuck off" when you don't even understand what someone is saying.

Cleveland IMC Under Zionist Assault
by Sheepdog Sunday, May. 17, 2009 at 11:05 AM

This is the tactic: Inundate the newswire with spam, and Zionist propaganda by petulant, bitter reactionaries that border upon psychotic, who are dedicated and organized to conflate the theme of Zionism to Judaism, dependent on the cloak of ‘Jewishness’ to hide the blatant horror of occupation and genocide the leadership of Israel has perpetrated since the Zionist and the Nazis formed a partnership to seize the lands of the Middle East for a “Greater Israel”*

Cleveland IMC Under Zionist Assault

Task-Disable the IMC concept of open publishing.

The idea, I believe is to make the readership so disgusted and weary from the huge amount of spam, the incredible single minded hate, the constant barrage of articles from Zionist fringe blogs and the unending smears, lies and insults that the function the IMC was created to perform, is disabled.
A quick review of the newswire belies a terrific assault upon the concept of open truth and the ability to read and reason from unfiltered publishing of critical issues. And that this poses a massive problem to the funding and public support of the criminal Zionist state. Funding and support in the form of military and financial aid, pushed by the AIPAC and Israeli lobby when Americans are under a grinding economic slump in serious need of stopping the hemorrhaging of our national treasury by wars that only serve Israel.
Israel, a state that holds a 400+ arsenal of nuclear weapons, and has never signed the nonproliferation treaty yet receives this aid against congressional law.
There are things the readers need to know and the task, from the Israeli lobby’s point of view, is to bury the information and assault the open discussion and analysis with the most vile language, crude graphics huge spam entries and violent hate, one could imagine.
It’s the cudgel of the light and truth that the monsters posing as victims, fear
http://cleveland.indymedia.org/news/2009/05/39177.php

Long Live the independent blogger!

The collective was infiltrated long ago by Al-Jizzeera (and soon after by their groupie freeloaders, such as nessie, shitferbrains, PrionPartyy, et al).

Couldn't have happened to a nicer bunch of people.

Of course these zioNAZIS want to shut down open forums.
They cannot stand in the light of their own actions but would rather have blogs of self mastrabatory psychopaths, all in a circle jerk; without fear of unfriendly analysis.

The way you spammed Cleveland, shit for brains?

in this thread
http://cleveland.indymedia.org/news/2009/05/39177_comment.php
it is VERY clear who shut down Cleveland.
They didn't have
Report Buttons
to deal with psychopaths like your kind.

http://la.indymedia.org/news/2009/10/231657_comment.php#231669

I can't think of a better example of exactly why these report buttons are needed.

http://cleveland.indymedia.org/news/2009/05/39177_comment.php#39395

"We're Impressed"
by really" Monday, May. 18, 2009 at 9:48 PM

I haven't posted on LA for weeks.
You can have them. they have been infiltrated and the censorship seems personal. Fuck them.

Now explain exactly why you're having such a fit.
We should not only sanction the CRIMINAL zionist state but their yammering psychopaths who can't even remember the subject of this wank piece by the Israeli lobby [ and their raging hypocrisy and paranoia.]

How does Arafat's corpse taste, lady?

for someone who fellates Israel, can't remember the topic of the thread and his its lips all over the IMC, sucking, sucking and sucking and then spitting out the spooge of the israeli lobby, you seem to be an expert.
Remember the topic of this paranoid thread?
Obviously not.

I do remember a shit for brains who is a freeloader at the LA-IMC.

look who is typing.
Anyone reading the posts you make belie the impression you have anything BUT sh*t inside your ziomut riddled acorn.
Sanction the rabid bats of zionism. A bane on mankind.

'fess up, shitferbrains. You're a woman, and a self loathing Jew to boot, right?

actually I'm not even a Christian.
I'm a Scott. With some German, a horrible combination.
But at least I don't spray spooge all over the IMC fellating Israel.
And smearing the people of the Jewish faith with the sh*t stain of zionism.

I'm sure the organic ambiance of mental problems concerning sex acts with the dead are high on Yada's concerns. but I'm more concerned with the backlash of hate the cult of zionism is bringing to the Jews of the world with their blood soaked cloak of many colors.
You see, I happen to have some Jewish friends and individuals like yourself; a terrorist [ "let their blood flow in the streets" - wastes of skin "- " breeding like rats"] and psychopath; that put them in a bad light ( why do you think the lobby uses deranged twits like Yada, if they wanted * good* press.. ) and is a deliberate recipe for their taking another fall. Just like the zionists who sold their 'brethren' out to the nazis, in order to emigrate to Palestine.

Now the shit for brains claims it has Jewish friends. Kind of sounds like lying crackers saying "Some of my best friends are black".

The bitch is terrorist sympathizing sewage.

' not' a great deal of things.
Actually I have many friends, but none that pimp race, like all the zionazis I encounter.

selective victimhood

We poor widdle ragheads are so victimized ,always the bedwetters, always the whiners, always the cowardly sacks of shit, always the wastes of skin.